a. the defendant is innocent, the plea is Not Guilty
b. the defendant is guilty, the plea is Not Guilty
c. the defendant is guilty, the plea is Guilty
d. the defendant is innocent, the plea is Guilty
I just realized that most people have no trouble instantaneously considering A and B when a plea of Not Guilty is filed, but it seems that society as well as the legal system itself doesn't pause to question a plea of Guilty even though (d) is a real possibility.
Here's the question: what do you think the statistics are for (a), (b), (c), and (d)? Click the blog title to see my own answers, but I don't want to bias you so better yet submit your own first and *then* look at what I wrote.
P(a) = 45%
P(b) = 48%
P(c) = 2%
P(d) = 5%
I think the majority of defendants file Not Guilty no matter what the truth is; but, I think that out of those who file Guilty, the vast majority are actually innocent. I think this because I don't think guilty criminals have as much remorse to make them give up on exoneration as do innocent defendants have a need/desire to protect the true criminal even if that means certain incarceration, e.g. a father pleads guilty to protect his son or a mobster pleads guilty to protect the mafia.
I have done ZERO legal research into this. For all I know, the ratio of Guilty pleas to Not Guilty pleas could be about the same. I just don't think it is, that's all.
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2 comments:
For what it's worth, Law and Order uses (d) quite a bit.
Yes, but that's because (d) is so much more dramatic than (c) -- in fact, (c) is not dramatic at all -- and also because the writers recognize that juggling between (a), (b), and (d) is more entertaining to the loyal viewers who tune in weekly than is the endless coin flip between (a) and (b).
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